![]() (3/3) /ykZdJ4xRjk- Capital Weather Gang July 26, 2022 Expect more extreme precipitation events like this in the future as the planet warms. The Midwest has seen the greatest increase (42%) in the heaviest precipitation events in recent decades, as temperatures have risen due to human-caused climate change. Read: Why is it raining so hard? Global warming is delivering heavier downpours That was larger than any other region of the country for the period 1901-2016, although it was surpassed by the Northeast in the period 1958-2016 (see tweet below, which includes a National Assessment analysis). Over the past 120 years, the Midwest has seen a 42% increase in the amount of rain falling in top-end short-term rainfall events (the heaviest 1% of events). There’s a well-established trend in many parts of the globe for the heaviest short-term rainfall events to become more intense, consistent with a human-warmed atmosphere allowing more moisture to evaporate from warmer oceans and to flow into rainmaking systems. “Annual precipitation in the Midwest has increased by 5% to 15% from the first half of the last century (1901–1960) compared to present day (1986–2015),” the Fourth National Climate Assessment observed in 2018. (Image credit: NOAA ) The Midwest is getting more rain - and more extreme rain eventsĪlthough the Midwest climate is naturally drought-prone, recent decades have trended more toward the wet side of the spectrum. July 26, the creek rose 21 feet, and peaked just 1.36 feet below the all-time record set on September 15, 2008. In the seven hours beginning at 12:30 a.m. Hydrograph for Dardenne Creek near I-70 in St. Louis area reported the following impressive one- and two-day totals through Tuesday and Wednesday morning, respectively.Ģ.2 miles NE of St. Louis may have seen as much as 14 inches of rain. Louis, with a secondary band roughly 60-70 miles to the north. The system included one band of intense rainfall passing directly over St. The culprit behind the early-morning deluge was a mesoscale convective system - a large, highly organized complex of showers and thunderstorms - that moved across the area in a “training” fashion from west-northwest to east-southeast, with cells regenerating and tracking along a constant path while the complex itself moves much more slowly. ![]() CDT) Tuesday, with a particularly intense core (dark red) stretching from west to east across the St. Louis metropolitan area on July 26, 2022, can be seen in this infrared satellite image from 0800Z (3 a.m. The cold, high tops of an intense mesoscale convective system that tracked across the St. Recurrence intervals are most likely getting shorter in many locations. Atlas 14 is based on past observed rainfall, so it does not take ongoing climate change into account. Louis would be expected to occur about once every 200 to 300 years if the climate were “stationary,” based on the NOAA Atlas 14 catalog of recurrence intervals. ![]() The 24-hour total of just over 9 inches in St.
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